Market Update

MarketsThe Fed is using tools to bring excess demand into better balance w/ constrained supply. It will be challenging to remove accommodation to get inflation under control while sustaining healthy labor market conditions. Some of the issues weighing heavier for the markets last week were: the Fed policy, Russia, China’s new lockdowns and growth slowing.Highlights Dow suffers longest losing streak …

Market Update

StocksWith ~69% of S&P 500 companies having reported (through Thursday of last week), Q1 earnings had grown by more than 10%.  In April, the DJIA was down 4.9%, S&P 500 was down 8.8%, and Nasdaq dropped 13.3%. These were the biggest monthly declines since March 2020 for the DJIA and S&P, and the largest for the Nasdaq since Oct. 2008. …

Market Update

Stocks Earnings growth for the year is predicted to be 9.8% (up from 7.1% at start of year). Since 1980, the market has been down through April for the last 15 years. The average May through September return in those years is -1.5% vs. +8% in the other years. Highlights Net profit margins are expected to be 12.1%, above the …

Market Update

Stocks The stock market has had significant recovery. The S&P was down 13% at one point this year, but recovered to ~4.9% in Q1. Data continues to show an inflation problem along with supply chains challenges (including China).Highlights 8 of last 11 tightening cycles have led to recession With inflation so high, this tightening will be aggressive Wages aren’t keeping …

Market Update

Oil Headlines designed to get clicks have produced a panic, shifting from fear of having too much to having too little. There has been panic buying in the market. Highlights Oil settled at $115.68 – highest since 2008 Biggest weekly gain on record – $24.09 or 26.3% Natural gas up 12.2% for week (to $5.016) April gasoline was up 23.3% …

Market Update

OilHeadlines designed to get clicks have produced a panic, shifting from fear of having too much to having too little. There has been panic buying in the market. Highlights Oil settled at $115.68 – highest since 2008 Biggest weekly gain on record – $24.09 or 26.3% Natural gas up 12.2% for week (to $5.016) April gasoline was up 23.3% for …

Market Update

The FedThe Fed is working to fight inflation for the first time in decades, fueling a debate over a key question: Are there alternative ways to fight inflation and avoid recession? Fed funds rate increase = job losses and recession. There hasn’t been an unemployment rate increase of even .35% without causing a recession.Highlights The conflict in Russia has added …

Market Update

HousingThe Housing Party is Starting to Wind Down depicts a waning housing market. The economy is reopening, creating less need for home offices or classrooms. The stampede from small, urban apartments to houses in the suburbs or rural areas seems to have peaked. New home sales jumped from a $649K annual rate in Oct. to $811K in December but will …